Here are my predictions for which Cardinals will be winning postseason awards in 2010:

 

 

MVP – Albert Pujols

Cy Young – Adam Wainwright

Manager of the Year – Tony LaRussa

Executive of the Year (if there even is such a thing) – John Mozeliak

Gold Glove – Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright

Silver Slugger – Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Adam Wainwright

Roberto Clemente Award – Albert Pujols

 

     In 1882, a group of owners banded together to challenge the monopoly of the National League.  They formed the American Association – the first direct, on-field challenge to the older, more established National League.  The American Association placed teams in cities that had not yet been penetrated by the older league – places like Kansas City, Missouri, Toledo, Ohio, and Richmond, Virginia.  The new league also placed quite a few teams in the Midwest.  Aside from Kansas City and Toledo, the American Association placed a team in St. Louis, which had been abandoned by the National League just four years earlier.

     One member of the group of owners that helped to form the new league was Chris Von der Ahe – the German-born beer baron who owned the St. Louis franchise.  Von der Ahe’s team – the Brown Stockings – would quicky become the flagship franchise of the new league, winning four consecutive American Association pennants in 1885, 1886, 1887, and 1888.  Von der Ahe, who called him, “Der Poss Bresident”, was something of a showman – a sort of 19th Century version of Charley Finley.  He built his team a brand new ballpark to play in, which included a beer garden in right field and a race track and an amusement park right next door.  He also stocked his team with the best players available – a sort of 19th Century version of George Steinbrenner.

     The American Association started out to be a rousing success.  They were able to lure people away from the older, more established NL by offering cheaper ticket prices, ball on Sundays, and ball parks that served beer and liquor.  Because of this, the AA became known as “The Beer and Whiskey League”.  Followers of the game had been called “Bugs” or Cranks”.  Female followers were known as “Cranklets”.  Later, they were said to be “fanciers of the game” or “fanatics”, then shortened to “fans”.  The new league also offered something else brand new to baseball fans – postseason play.

     In 1885, the American Association and the National League agreed to pit their champions against one another in a postseason series that would be called the WORLD’S Series - a forerunner of the Fall Classic that we know and love today.  Von der Ahe’s Brown Stockings played in the first edition of the 19th Century Fall Classic against Cap Anson’s Chicago White Stockings (known today as the Chicago Cubs).  That series would end in a tie.  They would win the 1886 WORLD’S Championship 4 games to 2 over the White Stockings.  The 1887 Classic pitted the Brown Stockings against the Detroit Wolverines.  They lost 10 games to 5 in games that were played in several cities.  The Brown Stockings also played in the last edition of the 19th Century Fall Classic in 1888 against John Montgomery Ward and the New York Giants, losing 6 games to 4.

     The American Association limped along for three more seasons before finally folding after the 1891 campaign.  Five of its teams – the Baltimore Orioles (no, not the same Orioles we know today), Brooklyn Bridegrooms, Cincinnati Porkers, Pittsburgh Alleghenys, and St. Louis Brown Stockings - would eventually be absorbed into the National League.  The National League would then swell to 12 teams.  The Orioles would fold after the 1899 Season when the league shrank from 12 teams to 8 – the same number they would operate with for the next 62 years.

     Today, the American Association may be gone, but it is certainly not forgotten.  It’s legacy lives on in:

1.  Sunday baseball.

2.  Ballparks serving beer and liquor.

3.  Professional baseball being a profitable enterprise in the Midwest.

and, of course…..

4.  Postseason play.

     Major League Baseball, today, considers the American Association to have been a full-fledged major league.  The statistics of its players are counted fully within their career records.  Four of the five teams that were eventually absorbed by the NL continue to survive to this day – the Brooklyn Bridegrooms (now the Los Angeles Dodgers), Cincinnati Porkers (now the Reds), Pittsburgh Alleghenys (now the Pirates), and, last and certainly not least, the St. Louis Brown Stockings – today known, and loved, as…..the Cardinals.

I now give you my 2010 Cardinal predictions.  Better than ANY baseball preview rag.

 

Here we go:

 

1.  Big Al will become a .350, 50, 150 man enroute to his fourth NL MVP Award – third in a row.

2.  “The Stillwater Stinger will become a .300, 30, 100 man this year.

3.  Felipe Lopez will sign with the Cardinals.

4.  Mitchell Boggs, Allen Craig, Jaimie Garcia, and Joe Mather will make their first Opening Day rosters.

5.  Twitch will win his first Gold Glove and hit over .290 again.

6.  Carp and A-Dub will BOTH win 20 games, causing another split in the Cy Young vote and enabling a possible Tim Lincecum THREE-peat.  A-Dub will K more than 200 again.

7.  2010 will be Tony’s last as Cardinal manager.  Jose Oquendo will take over in 2011.

8.  The Cardinal starting rotation will log around 1000 Innings Pitched.

9.  Big Al, Yadi, “The Stinger”, Carp, and A-Dub will make the NL All-Star Team.  Big Al, Yadi, “The Stinger”, and A-Dub will start.

10.  Skip Schumaker will hit .300 again.

11. Carp will repeat as ERA Champ.

12.  Big Al and “The Stillwater Stinger” will win Silver Slugger awards.

13.  The Cards will host a “Stillwater Stinger” Bobblehead Day.

14.  John Mozeliak will be named National League Executive of the Year.

15.  The Cardinals will win between 90-95 games and win the NL Central by 7 games.

16.  BOTH the Reds AND the Brewers will finish ahead of the Cubs.

17.  Due to excess media pressure, Mark McGwire may step down as Cardinal hitting coach.

18.  Big Al and the Cardinals will get an extension done – 7 years/$161 mil.

19.  Kyle Lohse will rebound and win between 13-15 games.

20.  Brad Penny will win 13 games and sign an extension for 2011.

21.  Lefty will start a blog. 

and finally…..

This one’s for you, Rex…..

22.  The Cubs will continue to be dead. 

I now present my 2010 St. Louis Cardinal roster:

 

PITCHERS:

Mitchell Boggs

Chris Carpenter

Ryan Franklin

Jaimie Garcia

Blake Hawksworth

Kyle Lohse

Kyle McClellan

Trever Miller

Jason Motte

Brad Penny

Dennys Reyes

Adam Wainwright

 

CATCHERS:

Jason LaRue

Yadier Molina

 

INFIELDERS:

Allen Craig

David Freese

Felipe Lopez

Julio Lugo

Albert Pujols

Skip Schumaker

Brendan Ryan

 

OUTFIELDERS:

Matt Holliday

Ryan Ludwick

Joe Mather

Colby Rasmus

 

     Lately, one of the not new statistics used to evaluate pitchers is the WHIP – which stands for Walks+Hits per Innings Pitched.  It is a good indicator of how good a pitcher’s command and control are and whether he is able to keep a ballgame from getting away from him.  It was actually one of the stats used in deciding the 2009 Cy Young Award Race between Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants.  The rankings of the Cardinal pitching staff in 2009 by order of their WHIP’s was as follows:

 

1.  Trevor Miller – 0.97

2.  Chris Carpenter – 1.01

3.  Blake Hawksworth – 1.10

4.  Joel Pineiro – 1.14

5.  Ryan Franklin – 1.20

6.  Adam Wainwright – 1.21

7.  Kyle McClellan – 1.35

8.  Dennys Reyes – 1.36

9.  Kyle Lohse – 1.37

10.  Jason Motte – 1.42

11.  Todd Wellemeyer – 1.77

12.  Mitchell Boggs – 1.79

 

For comparison purposes:

Brad Penny (BOS/SF) – 1.41

Brad Penny (SF Only) – 0.97

John Smoltz (BOS/Cards) – 1.45

John Smoltz (Cards Only) – 1.18

 

For Compariosn purposes in the 2009 Cy Young Award voting:

Tim Lincecum (SF Giants) – 1.04

 

    Judging by his WHIP with SF Only in 2009, Brad Penny is a low risk, potentially high reward signing for the Cards.  WHIP-wise, we are getting a more than adequate replacement for Joel Pineiro. 

The Stillwater Stinger was a great addition last season down the stretch.  He helped us to our first posteason berth since 2006.  He should be an even better addition for us over the next 7 years because, over the course of his relatively short, but brilliant career, Matt Holliday has made a habit of feasting on NL Central Pitching.

 

First, let’s break it down team-by-team:

 

Against our hated arch rivals, the Cubs:

109 AB, 33 H, 4 HR, 13 RBI, .303 AVG.

 

Against the Up-and-Coming Reds:

129 AB, 41 H, 3 HR, 15 RBI, .318 AVG.

 

Against the possibly cellar bound Astros:

114 AB, 42 H, 5 HR, 18 RBI, .368 AVG.

 

Against “Bug Eyes” Braun, Prince “The Revolting Blob” Fielder and the rest of The Brew Crew:

117 AB, 47 H, 8 HR, 26 RBI, .402 AVG.

 

And, finally, the Pirates:

168 AB, 52 H, 11 HR, 29 RBI, .310 AVG.

 

Overall against NL Central Pitching, he is:

637 AB, 215 H, 31 HR, 101 RBI, .338 AVG.

 

A couple of teams to consider come Postseason time:

 

The Dodgers:

312 AB, 107 H, 18 HR, 63 RBI, .343 AVG.

 

The Phillies:

126 AB, 37 H, 11 HR, 34 RBI, .294 AVG.

 

Numbers to keep in mind when the first Holliday vs. Bay showdown rolls around, against the Mets, he is:

135 AB, 40 H, 5 HR, 27 RBI, .296 AVG.

 

Hopefully, he can add to these numbers against the cross-state rival, Royals in June:

30 AB, 11 H, 2 HR, 8 RBI, .367 AVG.

 

And last, but certainly not least, should we make it to the Fall Classic, he has posted the following numbers against the Yankees:

33 AB, 11 H, 1 HR, 7 RBI, .333 AVG.

 

All-in-all, I would say that “The Stillwater Stinger” is a very valuable weapon in the Cardinals’ offensive arsenal.

 

     I went to Winter Warm Up today and today only to get one player’s autograph.  That player?  Matt Holliday.  I thought that Matt needed a nickname.  An official Give Matt a Nickname thread was started on the message board.  A bunch of different names were floated about and one of the ones that people liked was “The Stillwater Stinger”

     I thought that it was apporpriate because Matt Holliday hails from Stillwater, OK.  I went a little further in my reasoning and tried to draw parallels between Matt Holliday and Mickey Mantle

 

1.  Both hail from Oklahoma

2.  Both actually grew up Cardinal fans.

3.  Matt is wearing number 7 like Mickey did.

4.  Since Mickey was nicknamed, “The Commerce Comet”, I thought “The Stillwater Stinger” sounded catchy.

 

     When I got to the WWU, I got my Holliday tickets at the Will Call Window.  I was pleased to see that I got numbers 34 & 35.  I decided that I was going to try and get Matt to put “Stillwater Stinger” under his signature on my baseballs.  At first, I wasn’t sure he would go along with it, but I decided to give it a try anyway.  What’s the worst he could say?  No?  After about 15 minutes, it came to be my turn.  I got up to his autograph station and told him my plan.  After explaining why I chose that nickname, he laughed and said, “I love it.”  He then signed my two baseballs “Matt Holliday – Stillwater Stinger”.

     After that, I told the nickname to Pat Parris (who signed my WWU pass) and he liked it too.  He also said he was he was going to consider using the nickname on Cardinals Live broadcasts this season.

     My son and I now have baseballs signed “Matt Holliday – Stillwater Stinger” and Matt has a new nickname – approval for which came from none other than Matt himself.  Later, I was reading the online edition of the Post Dispatch and the “Sillwater Stinger” nickname was posted in the accompanying article about his Winter Warm Up debut.

     Matt Holliday is now “The Stillwater Stinger”.

I think that BOTH Carp AND A-Dub have an excellent shot at winning Twenty this season.  A-Dub just missed with 19 and if Carp hadn’t missed those six weeks with the strained oblique  muscle, then I think he might have had a shot at it also.

If BOTH of aces – Carp AND A-Dub win 20, then we might have a replay of last year’s Cy Young vote with the Cardinal vote being split and Lincecum going for the three-peat.  For the Cy Young Award to come to St. Louis, one of them is going to have to step up and take charge.

On the bright side, think of it this way…..

If Carp AND A-Dub BOTH win Twenty, Lohse rebounds and wins maybe 15 and Penny wins 12, then that’s 67 wins from our top four starters alone.  If we can get 10 from our fifth spot, that would bring the total to 77 and we should be in good shape to repeat as NL Central Champs.  Also, we’re going to need our top four starters to log AT LEAST 800 IP.  Anywhere from 150-160 out of the fifth spot and our bullpen won’t be so overworked for the Stretch Drive.

I have a new nickname for Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.

 

Since they ended up splitting the Cy Young vote and made it possible for Tim Lincecum to win it, I think they should be called, “The Denton True-some” – a play on them being a twosome and also a play on Cy Young’s given name.

As the Regular Season winds down and the Cards prepare for the Postseason, they will have to make some tough decisions as to who to put on and who leave off the postseason roster.  My guess is that the postseason roster will look something like this:

 

PITCHERS:

Chris Carpenter

Ryan Franklin

Blake Hawksworth

Kyle Lohse

Kyle McClellan

Trevor Miller

Jason Motte

Joel Pineiro

Dennys Reyes

John Smoltz

Brad Thompson

Adam Wainwright

 

CATCHERS:

Jason LaRue

Yadier Molina

 

INFIELDERS:

Mark DeRosa

Troy Glaus

Julio Lugo

Albert Pujols

Brendan Ryan

Skip Schumaker

Joe Thurston

 

OUTFIELDERS:

Rick Ankiel

Matt Holliday

Ryan Ludwick

Colby Rasmus

 

 

Come on, Cardinal Nation, let me know what you guys think.